The real estate market is shifting, and it’s affecting agents as well as buyers and sellers.

As you’ve probably noticed, the market is slowing down. Right now, there are a lot of agents in the business, and the average agent sells about four or five homes a year. As interest rates continue to climb and the market continues to slow down, though, you'll notice more agents doing less business. Eventually, these agents will either leave the industry altogether or decide to join a team to help their business grow and increase their production.

At the Penrose Team, I’m always looking for talent—talent I can motivate and inspire to take the Penrose system, help as many people as possible buy and sell real estate, and give the best customer service possible.

So if you know of anyone here in Arizona looking to join a real estate team, give me a call or tell them to give me a call. I’d love the chance to meet and talk with them.

In the meantime, if you have any real estate questions yourself or you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, feel free to reach out to me as well. I look forward to hearing from you.

We’ll be discussing the recent changes we’ve been noticing in today’s market update for October.

We had 9,791 new listings this October, compared to 9,974 in October 2017—a 1.9% decrease. There were 19,889 homes on the market this October, a 3.1% decrease from 20,523 homes the same time last year.

Home sales are slightly down. We saw 7,340 sales in October 2018—a 1.2% decrease from 7,424 the year prior. We’re seeing 2.71 months’ worth of inventory this October, while we saw 2.76 months’ worth last year.

We’re seeing the highest mortgage rates since 2011, and the Fed is looking at hiking the rate again before the end of the year. We’re also noticing between 2,200 and 2,400 price reductions each week. This suggests we’re in a transitioning market where we have low inventory but also weakening demand. Higher rates mean buyers are having to pay more money for the same house. If you’re looking to move, it’s better to do it sooner rather than later so you can get a lower interest rate locked in.

If you or someone you know is looking to buy or sell, feel free to call me at 602-738-9943. I can also answer any questions you may have or provide you with further information. I look forward to hearing from you.

A lot of people tell me they don’t want to buy or sell during the holidays. They’ve got dinners to plan, and many have family coming to town to stay over. So that’s completely understandable.

But if you want to sell your home for top dollar, the fourth quarter is a great time to do so.

Why? A lot of sellers wait until after the holidays to put their homes on the market. By that time, there will be a lot more homes for sale than there are now, which means more competition. With more competition, sellers typically reduce prices to compete for the next buyer. The market in January tends to be softer, so why not sell now when there are fewer homes for sale?

Think about this: Any buyer who’s going to purchase a home during the holidays will have a sense of urgency. There aren’t a lot of homes on the market, so you’ll have the best opportunity to get a great price.

A buyer might also think that it’s better to wait until the new year to purchase a home since there will be more options. And that’s true; but we also know that interest rates have been rising consistently. They increased within the last few weeks, they’re also projecting another rate hike this year, and reports suggest that they might up another three times in 2019. Do you really want to risk a higher rate? A higher monthly payment?

I think it would be wiser to buy a home now and get your rate locked in as they are at the moment. You can always refinance if the rates go down in the future, but why finance at a higher rate then when you can secure a good one now?

If you have any questions or concerns, feel free to reach out to us. We’d love to talk strategy with you.

What’s the latest news from our Greater Phoenix area market? Here are the year-over-year numbers from September:

-The number of new listings decreased 5.2% from 9,646 to 9,145.

-The number of active listings decreased 5.5% from 19,832 to 18,754.

-The number of sold listings decreased 5.9% from 7,509 to 7,067.

-Our supply of inventory increased from 2.64 months to 2.65 months (though it’s increased 47% in the last four months)

In other market news, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again this past week, and they’re expected to raise them one more time in 2018, up to three times in 2019, and once more in 2020. As interest rates rise, home affordability becomes a problem—a 1% increase in rates decreases homebuyers’ purchasing power by 10%.

If you have neighbors who’ve put their homes on the market, you might notice some of them reducing their price to get their property sold. This isn’t happening in all markets, but it’s starting to become a larger trend. In fact, we’re averaging 2,200 price reductions per week here in the Valley.

What does this mean for buyers and sellers?

If you’re thinking of buying, now would be a great time to do it. If you’re thinking about selling, now is also a great time to make your move so that you can lock in a great rate on your new home before they rise even higher. If you buy a home and rates drop, you can always refinance.

As always, if you have any other questions about our market or you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at (602) 738-9943. I’d love to help you.

It’s hard to believe, but fall has arrived.

With that in mind, many potential sellers are wondering whether their window of opportunity has passed for the year. Is it too late to list?

Actually, no. The fall is still a great time to put your home on the market.

Once Labor Day has passed, many sellers who previously had their properties listed during the summer will come back to the market for another try. So while those looking to sell now have another chance to do so, those thinking of buying should also seize this moment.

Inventory levels are about to increase due to this fall selling surge, but rates are also set to rise—at least two more times this year.

In other words, don’t delay. If you’re thinking of buying or selling in 2018, now is the time to make your move.

If you have any other questions or would like more information, feel free to give us a call or send us an email. We look forward to hearing from you soon.

Are we entering a buyer's market?

After several years of continuous price gains, the market seems to be reaching its price cap. In June, 14% of all listings saw price cuts. This is up from the low of 11.7% we saw at the end of 2016.

In the same month, housing demand fell 9.6%, which is the largest decline in over two years. And mortgage applications have decreased as well.

This is partially due to the decreased affordability we’ve seen lately, which has been the result of rising mortgage rates and home prices.

If this is the start of a buyer's market, it is unlikely to be a momentary blip. This is because home builder sentiment has fallen recently to its lowest point in nearly a year. Home builders are losing confidence due to affordability concerns.

What does this mean for you?

If you're looking to buy, it's great news because it means you will have more choices at affordable prices. On the other hand, if you're looking to sell, this may mean that it's time to act. Listing your home now would give you the best odds of achieving a top price before the change in the market occurs.

Remember that real estate markets are very local, so if you want specific information about a neighborhood, feel free to call us. We're always here to help.

In August of 2018, 9,931 homes came on the market, whereas 9,853 came to the market in the same month last year. This is a 0.8% increase, which isn’t terribly significant.

Last year, there were 19,249 active listings on the market, compared to this year’s 18,338—a 4.6% increase.

For homes sold, August of 2017 saw 8,253. This year we sold 8,245, which doesn’t account for much of a difference.

In August of 2017, the months’ supply of inventory hovered around 2.33 months, which decreased by 4.4% over the next year, leaving us with 2.23 months this past August.

What does this mean? In short:

We’re seeing a pickup in inventory year over year and a decrease in the months’ supply of inventory. However, we have also seen a consistent increase of our months’ supply of inventory since May of this year.

You might notice that houses are staying on the market a little bit longer and that there have been some price adjustments in your area. In some neighborhoods, sellers are still getting multiple offers; in other neighborhoods, you might see an upswing of inventory.

If you have any questions about the state of the market or if you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, please reach out to me. I’ve been selling real estate in the Valley for the last 19 years—trust me, I can help you.

As summer draws near its end, it’s time for us to take a look at recent market trends in the Greater Phoenix area.

To begin, there were 8,921 new listings on our market as of this past July. This constitutes a very small year-over-year decrease from the 8,950 new listings that came to our market in July of 2017.

Moving on, there were 18,642 active listings this year as of July. Last year at this same time, there were 19,938. Of those listings, 8,531 sold this July, indicating a 6.3% year-over-year increase from the 8,024 that sold in July 2017.

Finally, while inventory levels have dipped over the last 12 months, going from 2.48 months of available supply in July of 2017 to 2.19 available months at that same time this year, supply has begun to climb back up over the past 90 days. Since May, there has been a 21% increase in the amount of inventory in our market.

With all of these changes taking place in our market, buyers and sellers alike will need professional guidance to make the most of their real estate goals.

If you have any other questions, would like more information, or are curious how we can help you buy or sell, feel free to reach out. We look forward to hearing from you soon.

Right now, a lot of changes are taking place in our market on a local, national, and even global level. 

According to the National Association of Realtors, home sales in the United States are currently down for the third straight month, while sales for single-family homes have dropped 5.3% year over year. On top of that, the national median home price is down 4.2%. 

Meanwhile, inventory, which rose 5.7%, has reached its highest level in recent times. In California, the impact of such developments is especially obvious. There, new and existing home sales are down 11.8% year over year. 

So between the national trend of higher interest rates and lower affordability, and the international news that China is pulling out of commercial real estate, it’s clear why so many are approaching our market with a sense of uncertainty.

If you’d like to learn more about the information I’ve shared today, please check out these great articles: 

• Southern California Home Sales Crash
• The U.S. Housing Market is Headed for a Slowdown
• Sales of New Homes Sink to an 8-Month Low
• Chinese Reversing Big U.S. Real Estate Buying Spree

And, as always, if you have any other questions, would like more information, or are curious about the impact these factors may have on your area, feel free to give us a call or send us an email. We look forward to hearing from you soon.

How did our June 2018 market compare with June 2017? Here’s how the latest year-over-year statistics stack up:

• The number of new listings dropped 1% from 10,234 to 10,139.
• The number of active listings dropped 6.2% from 20,536 to 19,282.
• The number of sold listings dropped 3.9% from 9,608 to 9,234.
• The month’s supply of inventory dropped 2.4% from 2.14 months to 2.09 months.
  
  

As you can see, we had slightly fewer homes come on the market and fewer homes actively listed for sale, which led to fewer homes being sold. This makes sense because when there are fewer homes for sale, fewer buyers find what they’re looking for and fewer homes sell.

We still have a shortage of inventory, interest rates are starting to creep up, and buyers want to buy now and lock in a low rate while they can but they aren’t all finding the home they want.

If you have a home you’re thinking about selling, I encourage you to put it on the market now. Not only is buyer demand strong because we’re in a seller’s market, but it would be prudent to lock in a low interest rate now to finance your next home purchase.

As I said, interest rates are creeping up, and the higher the rate, the higher the mortgage payment. For every 1% mortgage rates increase, buyers’ buying power decreases by 10%. At what point do rates go so high that buyers start pulling out of the market or looking at lower-priced properties that they can afford, thereby causing a deflationary pressure on home prices?

Consider these factors before deciding your next move. If you have any more questions about our market or you’d like to talk about your home buying or selling strategy, don’t hesitate to reach out to me. I’d love to help you.