The Penrose Team Blog

April 11, 2019

The Mad Market Trends of March 2019



Today’s topic: March Madness.

No, I don’t mean basketball—I’m talking about the madness of the real estate market we saw in March of this year.

In March, 11,170 homes came on the market, as compared to the 11,560 we saw in March 2018. That’s a 4.4% decrease in new homes coming on the market for sale.

Even still, we had 22,211 homes on the market for sale, which is 16.3% more than the 19,094 active listings we had last year.

We sold 8,507 listings this March—11.9% fewer year over year.

When we looked at the month’s supply of inventory, we saw that it went up 2.61%. Last March, it only increased by 31.98%.

In summary, we have more homes on the market for sale and fewer homes that are selling, which means that the inventory has increased. At the same time, mortgage rates dropped faster in the last 60 days than they have in over a decade!

Amid these mixed indicators, we’re noticing that homes that are priced well and are in great condition are still selling very quickly in most cases. Homes that need work and are priced too high or aren’t presented correctly are obviously taking longer to sell, if they sell at all.

Right now, we’re in a normal market that seems to be in flux—some areas in the Valley are slowing down, and others are pretty hot.

If you’re curious about what your home is worth, or if you’re thinking about buying a home and you’d like some tips on how to get the best deal in our market, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at (602) 738-9943. I’d love to help.

 

 

 

March 26, 2019

How to Handle Double Transactions



A double transaction means you’re selling your home at the same time as you’re buying your next one. Over the last 19 years in real estate, I’ve helped hundreds of clients with double transactions.

 

It gets tricky because you’re handling the buying and selling processes at the same time, meaning you deal with twice as many home inspections, appraisals, and negotiations. Though it can be a complex process, it’s certainly achievable, and today we’ll be telling you how to do it.

 

Before doing anything, find out what your home is worth. Work with a Realtor who will provide you with a net sheet and help you find out your market value; this will give you an accurate approximation of what you’ll be walking away from the sale with.

 

With this amount, go to a lender and get pre-qualified; this will also show you what you should use as a down payment. With all this, you’ll know the price point you should be looking at for your next home purchase.

 

I suggest you find out what’s on the market before you list your own home. You should have five to seven homes that you’re interested in and can make an offer on before listing.


There are a lot of details that need to be hammered out, but, fortunately, we have handled these sales hundreds of times.


 

Next, it’s time to market your home with an aggressive agent who can get the job done. When it goes under contract, go out to the aforementioned homes you’re interested in and make an offer that’s contingent upon your own home sale. Once your own home is under contract and has passed the inspection process, it’s much easier to get your offer accepted on a purchase.

 

It’s a great idea to have an agent who will represent you in both the buying and selling transactions. It’d be even better if they had an escrow coordinator who can organize the timelines and deadlines of each sale, ensuring you have a smooth closing. Your agent should also be working with lenders, title companies, and so on.

 

There are a lot of details that need to be hammered out, but, fortunately, we have handled these sales hundreds of times. If you are interested in orchestrating a double transaction in your next sale, have any questions, or need further information, feel free to reach out to us. We look forward to hearing from you soon.

March 12, 2019

The Latest Numbers From Last February Will Blow You Away

What’s the latest news from our Phoenix real estate market? Here are the statistics from February and how they compare to February of last year:

  • New listings decreased 4% from 9,940 to 9,555
  • Active listings increased 18.1% from 19,229 to 22,714
  • Sold listings decreased 8% from 7,070 to 6,507
  • The months’ supply of inventory increased by 28.3%, going from 2.72 months to 3.49 months

As you can see from our supply of inventory, we’re still in a seller’s market, but 28.3% is still a drastic jump. Aside from the rise in inventory, another statistic worth noting is that the Cromford Market Index is down 24% since last August. This means homes are still selling, but we don’t have as many bidding wars as we saw last year.

Additionally, interest rates are still low—the average rate for the 30-year fixed mortgage is around 4.25%. This makes now a great time to buy. If you wait for rates to drop, you risk getting priced out of the market if they start to rise.

If you or anyone you know is thinking about buying or selling a home or you have any other questions about our market, don’t hesitate to get in touch with me. I’d love to help you.

 

Feb. 26, 2019

What Will Rising Rates Do to Your Real Estate Goals?



Affordability and mortgage rates go hand in hand. That said, their impact goes deeper than some might think.

Many are quick to point out that interest rates were once hovering around 18%, and that today's single-digit rates are incredibly low by comparison. This is true. The difference is that when rates were that high, homes were also much less expensive.

 

Today, prices have gone up considerably. Therefore when rates rise by even a single percent, it makes a big difference in affordability.

As mortgage rates continue to rise, we’ll begin witnessing a few key consequences with increasing frequency. For one, a large number of buyers will be priced out of the market. These buyers will be forced to either move their search into lower price ranges or stop looking altogether.


Now is a perfect time to enter the market if you’re interested in buying or selling before rates rise once more.



For homeowners who locked in an extremely low rate, the decision to move to another home is not one to be made lightly.
These homeowners will find it difficult to rationalize buying a new home if it means accepting a much higher rate, unless they have a pressing enough reason to move.

In other words, rising rates can result in a drop of both buyer and seller activity.

With that said, rates have temporarily dipped. Now is a perfect time to enter the market if you’re interested in buying or selling before they rise once more.

If you have any other questions or would like more information, feel free to give us a call or send us an email. We look forward to hearing from you soon.

Posted in News
Feb. 15, 2019

January 2019 vs. January 2018



Today we’ll be comparing the numbers from our January 2019 market to those of January 2018.

 

10,905 homes came on the market in January 2019, while 10,594 were listed in January 2018—an increase of 2.9%. We had 20,616 active listings this January, while there were 19,147 last year—a 7.7% increase.

5,466 homes sold this January compared to 6,208 last year—a 12% drop. The months’ supply of inventory increased from 3.08 last year to 3.77 this year.

The market is shifting toward a normal market. We’re leaving the times where you can put a sign in your yard and get five offers in a day. More homes will come on the market and listings will take longer to be sold. In fact, the Cromford Market Index peaked at 165 in August and is now at 131—a 20% decline over six months.

There are more buyers coming into the market because mortgage rates have dropped. If they continue to trend up, however, these buyers will likely back out again.

If you have any questions or need more information, feel free to reach out to me. I look forward to hearing from you soon.

 

Jan. 25, 2019

What Changes Are We Seeing in the Market?




The latest numbers are in for December 2018 and we’re excited to talk about the year-over-year changes we observed in our market at the end of last year.

Last December, we had 6,147 homes come on the market. That’s down 1.9% from the number we saw in December 2017. During the same time period, our active inventory rose 2.6%. We had 19,735 homes on the market in December 2017, but we had 20,249 homes on the market as of December 2018.

The number of homes sold in our market also dropped significantly. We had 6,503 sold homes in December 2018, down 9.7% from the 7,197 we saw in 2017. As for the months’ supply of inventory, that figure went up by 13.5% from 2.74 to 3.11 months.

It remains to be seen how January will play out, but we’re starting to note that buyer demand is in a steady decline from about 165 to 132 on the Cromford Market Index.

What does all of this mean? Buyer demand is cooling as interest rates have gone up. At the same time, buyer affordability has gone down because prices have gone up. The hot market we had in the early part of 2018 has gone away and we’ve transitioned back to a normal, flat market.

When it comes to supply and demand, we’re still technically more favorable for sellers, but we are trending towards a balance. One thing I just saw is that mortgage rates have come down to the lowest they’ve been in eight months and we’re currently sitting at around a 4.5% average. I expect to see more buyers come into the market because of this, as rates will go up again in 2019.

If you or anyone you know is looking to buy or sell a home in 2019, don’t hesitate to give me a call or send me an email today. I look forward to hearing from you soon.

 

Dec. 26, 2018

Should You Wait Until Prices Go Down to Buy Your First Home?




If you’re a first-time homebuyer, does it make more sense to rent now and wait for real estate prices to come down and buy a home at a lower price in the future?


There are a couple factors you need to consider. First, how long are you planning on renting the home? Second, how much would you pay monthly for rent?


If you’re paying $1,500 a month, that equates to $18,000 a year. If you’re going to wait—say—three years for prices to go down and you’re paying $18,000 a year in the meantime, you’d end up paying $54,000. That’s a lot of money! You’re banking on the hope that the home you intend to buy will decrease $54,000 in the next three years just to break even.


In most cases, it doesn’t make sense to wait and rent until prices go down because of all the money you’d throw away on rent. There’s no equity and there aren’t any tax write-offs when it comes to renting properties.



The sooner you buy, the sooner you’ll be able to pay off your home.



If you buy now, you start making payments on your home now. When you retire in 20 or 30 years, would it make more sense to have a home that’s paid for or would you rather still be renting? Whatever your age is now, add 30 years to it—is your home going to be paid off by then?


Only if you buy a home now. Think about it.


If you have any questions or are thinking about buying your first home, don’t hesitate to give me a call. I look forward to hearing from you.

Posted in News
Dec. 10, 2018

What Changes Are We Currently Seeing in Our Market and Why?




Our market saw no real significant change in new listings: 8,521 new listings emerged in November 2018—in contrast, 8,554 came on the market last year.

There was a 2.8% increase in the active homes for sale from this year to last with 21,145 active home listed this year, and 20,564 listed in 2017.

Notably, our market underwent a 7.8% drop in homes sold from this year to last—6,644 were sold this year, while last year’s sales reached 7,202.

November’s inventory finished at 2.86 months last year and rose to 3.18 months this year, resulting in an 11.1% year-over-year increase.

So why the sharp increase in a few of these areas and the cooling off of sales?

These numbers appear to be symptoms of affordability becoming an issue for consumers, the ever-increasing interest and mortgage rates we’re seeing, and the fact that buyers aren’t qualifying for the homes they want to purchase or simply not qualifying altogether.  

This results in buyers feeling uneasy, which causes them to pass on purchasing.

The truth of the matter is if you bought a home between 2011 and 2017, you likely locked in a better rate than most buyers could get today—as it stands now, they’re sitting at 4.675%.

Though a number of reasons still make moving a necessity for some, we’re seeing fewer buyers electing to move at this time.

But this shouldn't totally discourage you: Homes that are priced right still have plenty of potential to sell.

For buyers, don’t wait to make a move until after the new year—you’ll want to capture the rate for that home you really want, now. If you don’t act, you may get “priced out.”

If you have any additional questions about the state of the market or any other real estate-related questions, please call or text me today at 602-738-9943. I’d be happy to assist you!

 

 

 

Nov. 19, 2018

The Shifting Market’s Impact on Agents

The real estate market is shifting, and it’s affecting agents as well as buyers and sellers.

As you’ve probably noticed, the market is slowing down. Right now, there are a lot of agents in the business, and the average agent sells about four or five homes a year. As interest rates continue to climb and the market continues to slow down, though, you'll notice more agents doing less business. Eventually, these agents will either leave the industry altogether or decide to join a team to help their business grow and increase their production.

At the Penrose Team, I’m always looking for talenttalent I can motivate and inspire to take the Penrose system, help as many people as possible buy and sell real estate, and give the best customer service possible.

So if you know of anyone here in Arizona looking to join a real estate team, give me a call or tell them to give me a call. I’d love the chance to meet and talk with them.

In the meantime, if you have any real estate questions yourself or you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, feel free to reach out to me as well. I look forward to hearing from you.

Posted in News
Nov. 13, 2018

Your October Market Update

We’ll be discussing the recent changes we’ve been noticing in today’s market update for October.

We had 9,791 new listings this October, compared to 9,974 in October 2017—a 1.9% decrease. There were 19,889 homes on the market this October, a 3.1% decrease from 20,523 homes the same time last year.

Home sales are slightly down. We saw 7,340 sales in October 2018—a 1.2% decrease from 7,424 the year prior. We’re seeing 2.71 months’ worth of inventory this October, while we saw 2.76 months’ worth last year.


We’re seeing the highest mortgage rates since 2011.



We’re seeing the highest mortgage rates since 2011, and
the Fed is looking at hiking the rate again before the end of the year. We’re also noticing between 2,200 and 2,400 price reductions each week. This suggests we’re in a transitioning market where we have low inventory but also weakening demand. Higher rates mean buyers are having to pay more money for the same house. If you’re looking to move, it’s better to do it sooner rather than later so you can get a lower interest rate locked in.

If you or someone you know is looking to buy or sell, feel free to call me at 602-738-9943. I can also answer any questions you may have or provide you with further information. I look forward to hearing from you.