The Penrose Team Blog

Feb. 21, 2018

January 2018 Market Update

Hopefully, you’ve had a happy 2018 so far! Today, I’d like to fill you in about what happened in the real estate market this past January.

We had 10,389 homes come on the market this year, as opposed to the 10,316 the year before. With a 0.8% difference, there was pretty much no change.

There were 19,961 active listings in January 2018. This was a 9.7% decrease from the previous year, which had 21,909 listings.

Six thousand one hundred and sixty-one homes sold on the market this year, constituting a 2% increase in the number of homes sold.

Inventory went down from 3.63 months last year to 3.24 months this January—a 12% drop.


If you’re thinking about moving in the future, do it as soon as possible.

 

It’s still a seller’s market. Rates have been going up, and they’ve actually hit the highest level they’ve been since 2014. However, they’re still relatively low.

We’re seeing a lot of buyers coming into the market to purchase homes, but there aren’t enough homes for sale. They naturally want to lock in the rate while it’s low, so if you’re thinking about buying a home, now is a great time. If you’re thinking about moving in the future, do it as soon as possible so you don’t run the risk of it going higher in the future.

For any questions about buying or selling, please feel free to contact me.

 

                                                              

Feb. 7, 2018

How Is This Volatile Market Affecting Real Estate?

 

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Today I’d like to talk to you a little bit about stock market volatility and how it impacts the real estate market.

 

When the stock market is going up, people tend to be more optimistic. That results in higher spending and a stronger real estate market. When the stock market goes down and starts to get choppy, people are less likely to spend and less likely to get involved in real estate. As fewer buyers come on the market, we start to see inventory climb.

 

The stock market has been really good for us this year, but things have started to get a bit more choppy recently. The interesting thing is that buyers are still buying at an aggressive clip. We put 30 homes under contract last month on our team alone.

 


The stock market has been choppy, but buyer optimism remains strong.

 

As of right now, the Phoenix market remains strong. Buyers are still buying, unemployment remains low, and optimism is high. If you want to know more about the market, what your home might be worth, or anything else about real estate, don’t hesitate to give me a call or send me an email today. I look forward to hearing from you soon.

Posted in News
Jan. 24, 2018

Lending Guidelines Have Changed in Phoenix

Today I wanted to quickly touch on a few changes to the tax code, as well as recent changes to loan limits. Before I get started, let me just say that if you’re looking for tax or financial advice, seek out a qualified professional. I’m not a CPA or a financial advisor.

 

Right now you need to know that the loan limits have increased for FHA, conventional, and VA loans. This means that more buyers are going to be entering the market, more buyers are going to be selling and trading up to a higher-priced property, and we’re going to see more market activity in general. More activity leads to higher home values, which is great news for homeowners.

 


More activity leads to higher home values.

 

You’ve also probably heard a lot about the recent tax code shift. You used to be able to deduct the interest on your loan up to the first $1 million on a property you’ve purchased, but that limit has now dropped to $750,000.

 

The property tax deduction is now being capped right at $10,000. That won’t affect most Arizonans, but it will affect homeowners in higher-taxed states like California, New York, and Illinois. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a lot of retirees selling their properties and moving to lower-taxed states like Arizona. I wouldn’t be shocked if we a saw a real boom in the market from that. This is the busiest January I’ve seen in 18 years in Phoenix. I anticipate a really great market in 2018.

 

If you have any questions for me about the market or anything else about real estate in general, give me a call or send me an email anytime. I look forward to hearing from you.

Posted in News
Jan. 10, 2018

What Happened in December 2017 and What to Expect From 2018

 

 

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What happened in the December 2017 real estate market? What can you expect from our real estate market in 2018?

In 2017, 6,146 homes came on the market in December. In December 2016, 6,579 homes came on the market, leaving us with a 6% decrease in 2017.

In December 2017, there were 20,461 homes available for sale. Compared to the 22,449 homes available for sale in December 2016, that’s a 9.7% decrease in active inventory.

The number of sold homes increased by 0.8% year over year, from 7,128 sales in December 2016 to 7,185 sales in December 2017.

In December of 2016, there were 3.15 months of inventory on the market, which decreased by 10.5% to 2.85 months of inventory in December 2017.

 

What do all of these numbers mean for our market?

 

There were fewer homes coming on the market for sale, and we had a 10% decrease in active inventory. We did have a slight increase in the number of homes sold, but inventory is down, leaving us with a seller’s market.


Why?


For one thing, interest rates are below 4%. Interest rates have gone up slightly, so buyers realize that as rates go up, their payments will go up. As a result, they want to lock in that low rate now, while it’s still below 4%.

The stock market is booming and the economy is roaring, causing homebuyers to think, “Prices are going to go up, so I’d better lock in the current price now.”

What does all of this mean for the 2018 market here in Phoenix?

I anticipate 2018 to be one of the hottest markets on record, and it’s off to a great start.

In January, we get about 10,000 new homes on the market. From now until May, there will be 10,000 to 12,000 homes going up for sale each month, so get your home on the market now before your neighbors do.

 

If you have any questions about buying or selling a home in 2018, please don’t hesitate to reach out to me. I would be happy to help you!

 

 

Dec. 27, 2017

Why Are Buyers So Eager to Buy Now?

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Have you noticed there aren’t a lot of homes on the market for sale? Have you noticed that there are a lot of buyers out there looking to purchase?


If rates go up, you might end up kicking yourself wishing you had bought a home earlier.

 

This is because interest rates have been rising this past year. The Federal Reserve raised rates twice, and there’s talk that they may do it again. Why? The economy is going up—the stock market is up roughly $5 trillion and the GDP is up about 3.3%. As the economy grows and expands, the Fed tends to get nervous and raise rates in order to curb inflation.

As that happens, buyers decide that because the rates are going up on their would-be mortgages, they’ll either have a higher payment or be able to buy less property. That’s why they’re smart to buy now and lock in rates before they get any higher.

You might be thinking to yourself, “What if I buy a home now at today’s rates and they drop?” If that happens, you can always refinance and lower your rate then. It’s better to buy now though because if rates do go up, you might end up kicking yourself and wishing you had done something.

 

If you or anyone you know wants to buy before rates get any higher or sell in order to buy another home before rates get any higher, don’t hesitate to give me a call or shoot me an email. I’d love to help.

Posted in News
Dec. 13, 2017

How Does Our Current Market Compare to Last Year's?

 

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Today, I’d like to take a look back at our November 2017 market here in the Greater Phoenix area.

 

We had very little change year over year for the month of November. Last year, we had 8,477 homes come on the market. This year, we had just 20 more homes at 8,497.

 

In terms of active listings, there were 23,191 in November 2016 compared to 21,347 we saw this year. That’s an 8.6% decrease.

 

Sales are up, though, by 4.5%. We had 7,210 homes sell this year versus 6,890 last year. Inventory is down 13.8% in the valley from a 3.37-month supply in 2016 to 2.96 in 2017.

 

Interest rates have also gone up. Despite the fact that buyer demand is still strong, they are definitely paying attention to these rates. Buyers want to lock their rate now before they go any higher.

 

If you or anyone you know are looking to buy or sell, have any other questions, or would like more information, feel free to give me a call or send me an email. I look forward to hearing from you soon.

 

 


Nov. 13, 2017

How Are Things Shaping Up in The Phoenix Market This Fall?

 

How did our October 2017 market compare to what happened in October 2016?

Here are how the latest statistics stack up:

  • The number of homes that came on the market dropped from 10,026 to 9,842, which is a 1.8% decrease.

  • The number of total active listings dropped from 22,962 to 21,410—a 6.8% decrease.

  • The number of total homes sales rose from 7,097 to 7,393, which is a 4.1% increase.

  • Our supply of inventory dropped 11.5% from 3.24 months to 2.9 months. Remember—when you have a six-month supply or greater, you’re in a buyer’s market. Anything below six months generally constitutes a seller’s market.

Because there are more homes selling, fewer homes for sale, and fewer coming onto the market, we’re in a seller’s market in most neighborhoods in the greater Phoenix area.

If you or anyone you know are interested in buying or selling in this market, don’t hesitate to give me a call. I’d love to speak with you.

 

                                       

Nov. 9, 2017

Why It Makes Sense to Sell During the 4th Quarter

 

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A lot of people think that the holidays are a bad time to sell a home because a lot of buyers who were in the market before are no longer purchasing. While there are fewer buyers on the market during this time of year, there are also a lot fewer homes for sale.

If a buyer needs a home in the fourth quarter of the year, it’s for a solid reason. Why would they put the stress of moving during the holidays on themselves and their families if they didn’t have to buy a home?

Many buyers are looking for a home around this time of year for tax reasons. For others, their lease is up and they’re finally ready to make the leap to homeownership. Some buyers are moving here on corporate relocation and need to wrap up their housing situation before they start their new job in January.


Serious buyers are plentiful this time of year.

 

I could give you six or seven more reasons why buyers purchase at this time of year, yet most sellers pull their homes off the market during these months. We’re in a seller’s market right now and in most cases, you’re better off selling in the fourth quarter rather than in the first quarter.

 

If you have any questions for me or are interested in taking advantage of the current market conditions, give me a call or send me an email. I look forward to hearing from you soon.

 

Posted in News
Oct. 26, 2017

Are We Headed for a Market Crash in 2018?

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Will the real estate market crash in 2018?

Let me get this full disclaimer out of the way—I’m not an attorney, I’m not a CPA, and I can’t predict the future.


If you’re still renting, you need to buy and start working on building equity for your future.

That being said, I’m sure you’ve read articles online or heard rumors that our market is headed for a recession. I will say that it’s definitely possible—we haven’t had a recession since 2008 and 2009, and we get a recession every eight to 10 years, so technically we’re overdue.

 

Should you sell your home now, though? I would definitely consider it if you don’t want to be in that home for the next five to 10 years. If that’s the case, it would probably be wise to sell the home, take the equity, and buy another house you see yourself living in for the next seven to 10 years so you can lock in the interest rates while they’re still below 4%.

 

Be happy where you’re at—that’s the key. If you’re not happy where you’re at, sell now. Don’t wait a year or two. Every year you wait, you increase your chances of selling in a buyers market with declining prices.

If you’re a buyer thinking you’d rather rent for the next five to seven years and wait this possible recession out, that’s fine, but renting at $1,500 per month for five years means you’d be throwing away $90,000 on rent. That’s $0 toward your financial future.

If you buy a home and make payments on it for the next five to seven years, it’s no big deal if the market adjusts. Just stay in the house and keep making your payments until the house is paid off and you’re mortgage and debt-free. When you retire, you want a home that’s paid for—you don’t want to be paying rent when you retire. The average mortgage lifespan is 30 years. Think about that. How old will you be in 30 years?

If you’re still renting, you need to buy and start working on building equity for your future.

 

I’d love to talk more with you about whether it makes sense for you to sell now, keep your house, or buy for the first time. If you have any questions or are thinking about making a move, just give me a call or send me an email and I’d be happy to help you.

Oct. 6, 2017

It's Time for Another Market Update

Today we’re talking about the changes we’ve seen in the real estate market, as well as giving an overview of where things were at as of this September.

In September of this year, 9,454 new listings came onto the market, compared to 9,938 in 2016. This is a 4.9% decrease. 

The number of active listings year over year has also decreased, going from 21,791 in 2016 to 20,806 in September of this year.

However, sales have been basically flat. The difference between last year and this year was just a .002% increase from 7,436 to 7,456. 

Like new listings and active listings, inventory has also decreased. In September of this year, there were 2.79 months of inventory, whereas last year there was 2.93 months. 

All of this indicates a shortage of homes for sale in our current market, especially in lower price ranges. Nevertheless, demand is still strong.

These conditions combined with the fact that rates are still low means that now is a great time for sellers. It’s a great time to cash out as a seller while the market is still in your favor.

If you have any other questions or would like more information, feel free to give me a call or send me an email. I look forward to hearing from you soon.