The Penrose Team Blog

Oct. 15, 2018

What Do the Latest 3rd Quarter Numbers Say About Our Market?

 

What’s the latest news from our Greater Phoenix area market? Here are the year-over-year numbers from September:

-The number of new listings decreased 5.2% from 9,646 to 9,145.

-The number of active listings decreased 5.5% from 19,832 to 18,754.

-The number of sold listings decreased 5.9% from 7,509 to 7,067.

-Our supply of inventory increased from 2.64 months to 2.65 months (though it’s increased 47% in the last four months)

In other market news, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again this past week, and they’re expected to raise them one more time in 2018, up to three times in 2019, and once more in 2020. As interest rates rise, home affordability becomes a problem—a 1% increase in rates decreases homebuyers’ purchasing power by 10%.


As interest rates rise, home affordability becomes a problem.



If you have neighbors who’ve put their homes on the market, you might notice some of them reducing their price to get their property sold. This isn’t happening in all markets, but it’s starting to become a larger trend. In fact, we’re averaging 2,200 price reductions per week here in the Valley.

What does this mean for buyers and sellers?

If you’re thinking of buying, now would be a great time to do it. If you’re thinking about selling, now is also a great time to make your move so that you can lock in a great rate on your new home before they rise even higher. If you buy a home and rates drop, you can always refinance.

As always, if you have any other questions about our market or you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, don’t hesitate to reach out to me at (602) 738-9943. I’d love to help you.

 

https://s3.amazonaws.com/vyralmarketing/Jason+Penrose/market+reports/2018/October/ARMLS+September+2018.pdf

Oct. 9, 2018

Why Fall is Still a Good Time to Buy or Sell

It’s hard to believe, but fall has arrived.

 

With that in mind, many potential sellers are wondering whether their window of opportunity has passed for the year. Is it too late to list?

 

Actually, no. The fall is still a great time to put your home on the market.

 

Once Labor Day has passed, many sellers who previously had their properties listed during the summer will come back to the market for another try. So while those looking to sell now have another chance to do so, those thinking of buying should also seize this moment.


If you’re thinking of buying or selling in 2018, now is the time to make your move.


 

Inventory levels are about to increase due to this fall selling surge, but rates are also set to rise—at least two more times this year.

 

In other words, don’t delay. If you’re thinking of buying or selling in 2018, now is the time to make your move.

 

If you have any other questions or would like more information, feel free to give us a call or send us an email. We look forward to hearing from you soon.

 

Sept. 25, 2018

Are We Headed to a Buyer's Market?

Are we entering a buyer's market?

After several years of continuous price gains, the market seems to be reaching its price cap. In June, 14% of all listings saw price cuts. This is up from the low of 11.7% we saw at the end of 2016.

 

In the same month, housing demand fell 9.6%, which is the largest decline in over two years. And mortgage applications have decreased as well.

 

This is partially due to the decreased affordability we’ve seen lately, which has been the result of rising mortgage rates and home prices.

 


If you're looking to buy, it's great news because it means you will have more choices at affordable prices.


 

If this is the start of a buyer's market, it is unlikely to be a momentary blip. This is because home builder sentiment has fallen recently to its lowest point in nearly a year. Home builders are losing confidence due to affordability concerns.

 

What does this mean for you?

 

If you're looking to buy, it's great news because it means you will have more choices at affordable prices. On the other hand, if you're looking to sell, this may mean that it's time to act. Listing your home now would give you the best odds of achieving a top price before the change in the market occurs.

 

Remember that real estate markets are very local, so if you want specific information about a neighborhood, feel free to call us. We're always here to help.

Posted in News
Sept. 13, 2018

What Has Changed in the Market Since August 2017?

In August of 2018, 9,931 homes came on the market, whereas 9,853 came to the market in the same month last year. This is a 0.8% increase, which isn’t terribly significant.

Last year, there were 19,249 active listings on the market, compared to this year’s 18,338—a 4.6% increase.

For homes sold, August of 2017 saw 8,253. This year we sold 8,245, which doesn’t account for much of a difference.

In August of 2017, the months’ supply of inventory hovered around 2.33 months, which decreased by 4.4% over the next year, leaving us with 2.23 months this past August.

What does this mean? In short:

We’re seeing a pickup in inventory year over year and a decrease in the months’ supply of inventory. However, we have also seen a consistent increase of our months’ supply of inventory since May of this year.

You might notice that houses are staying on the market a little bit longer and that there have been some price adjustments in your area. In some neighborhoods, sellers are still getting multiple offers; in other neighborhoods, you might see an upswing of inventory.

If you have any questions about the state of the market or if you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, please reach out to me. I’ve been selling real estate in the Valley for the last 19 years—trust me, I can help you.

 

     

Aug. 21, 2018

How Have Things Changed for Our Market in the Last 12 Months?


As summer draws near its end, it’s time for us to take a look at recent market trends in the Greater Phoenix area.

To begin, there were 8,921 new listings on our market as of this past July. This constitutes a very small year-over-year decrease from the 8,950 new listings that came to our market in July of 2017.

Moving on, there were 18,642 active listings this year as of July. Last year at this same time, there were 19,938. Of those listings, 8,531 sold this July, indicating a 6.3% year-over-year increase from the 8,024 that sold in July 2017.


While inventory levels have dipped over the last 12 months, supply has begun to climb back up over the past 90 days.



Finally, while inventory levels have dipped over the last 12 months, going from 2.48 months of available supply in July of 2017 to 2.19 available months at that same time this year, supply has begun to climb back up over the past 90 days.
Since May, there has been a 21% increase in the amount of inventory in our market.

With all of these changes taking place in our market, buyers and sellers alike will need professional guidance to make the most of their real estate goals.

If you have any other questions, would like more information, or are curious how we can help you buy or sell, feel free to reach out. We look forward to hearing from you soon.

 

Aug. 8, 2018

What Phoenix Area Buyers, Sellers, and Homeowners Should Know About Recent Market Changes

Right now, a lot of changes are taking place in our market on a local, national, and even global level. 

According to the National Association of Realtors, home sales in the United States are currently down for the third straight month, while sales for single-family homes have dropped 5.3% year over year. On top of that, the national median home price is down 4.2%. 

Meanwhile, inventory, which rose 5.7%, has reached its highest level in recent times. In California, the impact of such developments is especially obvious. There, new and existing home sales are down 11.8% year over year. 

So between the national trend of higher interest rates and lower affordability, and the international news that China is pulling out of commercial real estate, it’s clear why so many are approaching our market with a sense of uncertainty.

If you’d like to learn more about the information I’ve shared today, please check out these great articles: 

And, as always, if you have any other questions, would like more information, or are curious about the impact these factors may have on your area, feel free to give us a call or send us an email. We look forward to hearing from you soon.

 

    

July 11, 2018

Your Latest Market Update: June 2018 vs. June 2017

How did our June 2018 market compare with June 2017? Here’s how the latest year-over-year statistics stack up:

  • The number of new listings dropped 1% from 10,234 to 10,139.
  • The number of active listings dropped 6.2% from 20,536 to 19,282.
  • The number of sold listings dropped 3.9% from 9,608 to 9,234.
  • The month’s supply of inventory dropped 2.4% from 2.14 months to 2.09 months.

As you can see, we had slightly fewer homes come on the market and fewer homes actively listed for sale, which led to fewer homes being sold. This makes sense because when there are fewer homes for sale, fewer buyers find what they’re looking for and fewer homes sell.

We still have a shortage of inventory, interest rates are starting to creep up, and buyers want to buy now and lock in a low rate while they can but they aren’t all finding the home they want.

If you have a home you’re thinking about selling, I encourage you to put it on the market now. Not only is buyer demand strong because we’re in a seller’s market, but it would be prudent to lock in a low interest rate now to finance your next home purchase.

As I said, interest rates are creeping up, and the higher the rate, the higher the mortgage payment. For every 1% mortgage rates increase, buyers’ buying power decreases by 10%. At what point do rates go so high that buyers start pulling out of the market or looking at lower-priced properties that they can afford, thereby causing a deflationary pressure on home prices?

Consider these factors before deciding your next move. If you have any more questions about our market or you’d like to talk about your home buying or selling strategy, don’t hesitate to reach out to me. I’d love to help you.

 

 

July 3, 2018

Why This Summer Is the Hottest Market We Have Seen in 10 Years


We are positioned to have the hottest real estate market in a decade here in Phoenix. How do I know that?

For one, we have almost a record low number of homes on the market for sale. Buyer demand is also picking up because interest rates are going up and buyers want to lock the rate in now. There are not enough homes on the market for sale, so prices are moving upward and there is pressure for buyers to buy now.


Buyer demand will remain strong as more homes come on the market.

Sellers are starting to put their homes on the market for sale in the summer because it is easier for most people to move in the summertime. You will start seeing more homes come on the market right now, but buyer demand will remain really strong. This means we should have a really great summer here in 2018.

If you or anyone you know is looking to buy or sell a home in this hot market, please feel free to reach out and give me a call or send me an email. I look forward to hearing from you soon.

June 25, 2018

Your Latest Statistical Outlook From the Greater Phoenix Marketr

What do the latest numbers say about our greater Phoenix market?

Between last May and May of 2017, there have been some big changes. Here’s what the year-over-year statistics tell us.

The number of new listings entering the market decreased just 1.2%, dropping from 10,672 in May 2017 to 10,554 in May 2018. The really dramatic differences occurred with the number of active listings, the number of sold listings, and inventory. The number of active listings decreased 8.1% from 21,214 to 19,507. The number of sold listings increased 2.4% from 9,858 to 10,094. And the supply of homes on our market dropped 11.3% from 2.15 months to 1.93 months.

What we have here is a tightening market. There are fewer homes for sale, but we’re still seeing strong buyer demand because interest rates are still in the low 4% range and many buyers are anxious about buying now before getting priced out of the market.

In short, it’s a great time to buy or sell.

As always, if you have any other questions about our market or you’re thinking of buying or selling a home soon, don’t hesitate to reach out to me. I’d be glad to help you.

 

June 11, 2018

Think Twice Before Accepting an All-Cash Offer From an Investment Company

Today I want to talk about something that’s coming back into our market, and that’s companies that pay cash for real estate.

I won’t list the names of all the companies out there that are making cash offers on properties, but I will mention some of the techniques and strategies they use that you need to be aware of.

Many times, I’ll be on a listing appointment with a seller and I’ll give them a suggested list price based on what other similar homes are selling for in the neighborhood. That seller will then tell me that an investment company offered them an all-cash offer for the exact same price. Why, then, should they list the home for, say, $300,000 when they already have a $300,000 cash offer?

Here’s why: a lot of these companies will take a commission off of the price they offer. In addition, they’ll charge a convenience fee. They’ll also then do a full-blown home inspection on your property and ask you for a credit in lieu of all repairs for the home.

At the end of the day, sellers who sell to these companies end up getting an average of 10% to 15% less for their homes at closing than what they were promised up front.

The only time it would make sense for a seller to sell to one of these companies is if the home needed a lot of work and they don’t have the funds to fix it up or they need to sell the home now because they’re in a bad financial situation and need cash immediately.

I can understand in that scenario why someone would entertain an offer from an investor or an investment company. In today’s hot seller’s market, though, it doesn’t make sense for a seller to not put their home on the market and get full retail value for it. Why give your hard-earned money to an investment company when you can put it in your own pocket for your financial future?

If you have any questions about selling your home now or selling to an investment company and you want to have a more detailed conversation, don’t hesitate to call me. If you have any other questions or real estate needs, feel free to reach out to me as well. I’d love to speak with you.

 

 

Posted in News